Designing strategy for more than one future.
A scenario-informed strategy system developed to help a national health nonprofit test priorities under uncertainty, identify resilient capabilities, and move from foresight into action.
2030
A STRONGER TOMORROW.
When the future is less certain, better questions lead to stronger strategies.
The organization was planning against a period shaped by shifting donor behaviour, rising operational pressure, trust and credibility challenges, a strained healthcare system, and greater reliance on partnerships. The challenge was not to predict what would happen, but to understand which existing priorities would remain viable, and what new options might be needed, if conditions changed.
From signals to strategic choices.
I used a structured foresight and design process to move from a broad signal environment to a practical decision framework.
Horizon Scan
Scan and cluster signals using STEEPV.
Trends + Drivers
Identify patterns, shifts, and strategic forces.
Critical Uncertainties
Define high-impact unknowns.
Scenario Development
Build four plausible operating futures.
Strategy Stress Test
Test priorities across scenarios.
Strategic Options
Translate findings into actionable choices and monitoring logic.
signals scanned
STEEPV → trends → drivers → critical uncertainties
“The interesting part wasn’t finding more signals. It was finding the relationships between them.”
Four plausible futures. More resilient decisions.
Two critical uncertainties, trust + credibility and fundraising friction, created four distinct scenarios. Each scenario reveals different opportunities and risks, helping leadership test priorities and prepare for a range of possible futures.
Confidence Flywheel
Stable trust
Lower fundraising friction
Resource-Constrained
Stable trust
Higher fundraising friction
High Scrutiny
Fragile trust
Lower fundraising friction
Defend the Core
Fragile trust
Higher fundraising friction
Some bets hold. Some break. A few become essential.
Existing and emerging priorities were tested across all four scenarios to see what remains resilient, what becomes fragile, and what shifts from useful to essential.
HOLDS
What remains useful across multiple futures.
- Retention and recapture
- Better measurement
- Partnership discipline
- Lightweight trust and governance controls
BREAKS
What becomes fragile as conditions change.
- Event-margin assumptions
- Digital-efficiency assumptions
- Activation gains without support capacity
- Weak community / clinical ties
BECOMES ESSENTIAL
What shifts from useful to necessary.
- Activation-quality management
- Retention / recapture discipline
- Decision-grade dashboards
- Trust-safe storytelling
- Community / clinical integration
Scenarios shouldn’t sit on a shelf.
A set of early-warning indicators helps leadership see when the operating environment may be shifting and decide when assumptions or priorities should be revisited.
A stronger foundation for what’s next.
The final playbook connected environmental scanning, scenario planning, and strategic testing into a reusable planning system. It helps leadership challenge assumptions, compare trade-offs, and make more resilient decisions as conditions change.